This from an October 2008 Press Release on Trulia.
According to a survey, paid for by Trulia*:
- More than 70 percent of non-homeowners surveyed say they have no plans to purchase a new home in the next year;
- Only 12 percent of non-homeowners say they expect to buy a home in the next 12 months;
- 92 percent of homeowners and 70 percent of non-homeowners say they plan on just staying put over the next 12 months;
Ah.. call me thick as a brick but why would you advertise the fact that agents who PAY for featured listings and ads on your website are marketing to a large majority of folks who have no intention of making a real estate move in the next year? It may be news but it looks like dumas marketing to me.
Now, if Trulia offered real estate agents a discount on ads because of this survey, THAT would be something to issue a press release about. Feel like giving agents a break, Pete? Here’s a golden opportunity for you to show real estate agents you’re on their side in a tough market. How’s 15% off the cost of their ad sound?
Rant continued:
Aside from the marketing faux pas, might this negative proclamation, revealed by a mere 5 day survey (9/19- 9/23) “adjusted for respondents’ propensity to be online” (?)* do a disservice to local agents trying to sell homes for clients AND a disservice to the public, by offering justification for standing on the sidelines as the wisdom of the crowd? “Hell, if no one else is buying for a year, I may as well just stand pat too. Thanks Trulia.” Well, at least if agents start griping about their advertising ROI and lack of conversions, you’ll have something to hang a hat on.
92% of homeowners staying put for a year? I don’t buy it. Sounds more like an American Daydream. I would have proclaimed the survey a bunch of crap, flushed it down the Trulia office toilet and told those Harris poll pushers they weren’t getting paid. I think the survey stinks on so many levels.
First, consider the logic of such a poll, that forecasts home buying activity going forward a year. Are you serious? On a day when the market nosedives 700 points I may say “Heck no, I’m not buying any more stock for a year.” But the next day, when the DOW rebounds, I may change my tune to “Hell yeah I’m buying stock, this is a bargain and long term this is a great opportunity.”
This survey reminds me of my youth when, after a long night of drinking, I knelt at the porcelain throne and swore off Boones Farm Apple Wine for a year. I see absolutely no reliability to such a survey. I’d certainly not issue a web wide press release supporting it.
Second, did you even consider the methodology may be flawed? 2507 people across a nation of 300 million (75+mil being homeowners) is a piss in the ocean. (A statistician may be able to predict the growing acidic global oceanic ph based on it, but I’ll still swim in Hawaii.) Besides, who are these folks? Where are they living– how many you got in there from high foreclosure markets? Do you know? Do you care? Before taking the time and money to issue a press release of such negative import to the global web, you might want to ask the Harris poll people to elaborate beyond age and income– reminds me of the methodology used by lenders to fund the loans that got us into this pickle. Oh yeah, Harris factored in “online propensity”. Is that anything like a no doc loan?
Those Harristaticians might be good number crunchers (how hard is it, anyway, to do magic tricks with polls, especially using “online propensity” sleight-of-hand?), but they might not know diddley about asking the right real estate questions and meaningful local buying population samples. I’d love to see those questions.
Third, real estate is LOCAL. This is the biggest fly in the ointment. First of all, a national survey that says “in general, real estate buying is down” is a statement of the obvious— but not all markets in all price ranges among all buyers, suck. Agents get that, don’t the Trulians? But a national survey to gauge local consumer buying behavior for the next year? Please, some one sing me a sad song, I think I may laugh myself to death.
Maybe Trulia ought to fix its ad:
End of Rant.
*Survey Methodology (how much did you pay for this hokum, Pete?)
This housing study was conducted online within the United States by Harris Interactive on behalf of Trulia between September 19-23, 2008 among 2507 general population adults age 18 years or older, 1549 of whom were homeowners and 958 of whom were not. Results were weighted as needed for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. No estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated; a full methodology is available. (emphasis added)
Technorati Tags: trulia, real estate survey, Harris poll
