Comments on: The Statistical Shell Game or How To Spin A Chart http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/ Sun, 7 Sep 2008 23:26:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3 By: sellsius° http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-15069 sellsius° Tue, 03 Oct 2006 16:21:32 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-15069 Great saying John. I am filing it in my "sayings to remember" folder. Great saying John. I am filing it in my “sayings to remember” folder.

]]> By: John Occhi http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-15060 John Occhi Tue, 03 Oct 2006 15:10:09 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-15060 Great Post and so true. When I first got into business, back in the 1970's, I had a 80 year old mentor who still worked everyday. At the risk of being politically incorrect, this guy was the sterotypical old jewish business man (not a bad thing) - his name was Seymour. In any event, Seymour tought me that "Figures don't lie...Liars figure" Great Post and so true. When I first got into business, back in the 1970’s, I had a 80 year old mentor who still worked everyday. At the risk of being politically incorrect, this guy was the sterotypical old jewish business man (not a bad thing) - his name was Seymour.

In any event, Seymour tought me that “Figures don’t lie…Liars figure”

]]> By: Michael http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-15011 Michael Tue, 03 Oct 2006 02:19:37 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-15011 Exactly!!! Just like RealtyTrac is selling subscriptions by Paul Rever-ing "Foreclosures are coming, Foreclosures are coming!!!" Yup, in one of our neighboring towns, they actually doubled this year (went up 100%), from 1 in 2005 to 2 in 2006!!! Watch out world (and put your credit card number in the spaces provided by RealtyTrac - sucker!). md Exactly!!! Just like RealtyTrac is selling subscriptions by Paul Rever-ing “Foreclosures are coming, Foreclosures are coming!!!” Yup, in one of our neighboring towns, they actually doubled this year (went up 100%), from 1 in 2005 to 2 in 2006!!! Watch out world (and put your credit card number in the spaces provided by RealtyTrac - sucker!). md

]]> By: Larry Cragun http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14994 Larry Cragun Mon, 02 Oct 2006 21:02:50 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14994 My contention is that the bubble lovers take a stat and make their point, even if it skewed or not relevant. Lar My contention is that the bubble lovers take a stat and make their point, even if it skewed or not relevant. Lar

]]> By: sellsius° http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14975 sellsius° Mon, 02 Oct 2006 17:05:40 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14975 Thanks anonymouse (that's funny) Thanks anonymouse (that’s funny)

]]> By: anonymouse http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14973 anonymouse Mon, 02 Oct 2006 16:39:51 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14973 link to the paper: http://urbanpolicy.berkeley.edu/pdf/CQSAdvMacro2005Web.pdf link to the paper:

http://urbanpolicy.berkeley.edu/pdf/CQSAdvMacro2005Web.pdf

]]> By: sellsius° http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14941 sellsius° Mon, 02 Oct 2006 07:18:21 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14941 Thank you for the comment Pat. I am interesting in reading the Case paper. Do have a link? Thank you for the comment Pat. I am interesting in reading the Case paper. Do have a link?

]]> By: Pat Kitano http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14939 Pat Kitano Mon, 02 Oct 2006 06:36:30 +0000 http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/residential-real-estate/the-statistical-shell-game-or-how-to-spin-a-chart/2006/10/02/#comment-14939 Great find Sellsius... I had just read Peter Coy's gloomy 9/19 "Can Wall Street Withstand Weak Housing?" Bus Week article, and hadn't seen his retort above on 9/26... granted, the two charts are tracking two different decades and had different correlations, but Merrill, who published the scary chart, had the duty Not to sensationalize by showing two decades worth of data. There's now a third Bus Week article dated 10/2 - Stocks Can Handle The Housing Chill - that rationalizes the new view that the scary Merrill chart might be just a facade: "Bears worry that a housing downturn will hurt because it accounted for such a big share of economic growth over the past five years. The real estate boom created tons of jobs in construction, sales, lending, and related industries. Plus, it gave consumers billions in extra spending power through cash-out refinancing, home-equity loans, and the like. But the employment hit in homebuilding is being offset by growth in nonresidential construction. As for the hit to consumption, there's no sign of it yet, and there may never be much of one. Americans may just continue to spend even though their houses are worth less. A 2005 research paper by economists Karl E. Case of Wellesley College, John M. Quigley of the University of California at Berkeley, and Robert J. Shiller of Yale University concludes that while increases in housing wealth spur consumer spending, surprisingly, "declines in housing market wealth have no effect at all upon consumption." --pk Great find Sellsius… I had just read Peter Coy’s gloomy 9/19 “Can Wall Street Withstand Weak Housing?” Bus Week article, and hadn’t seen his retort above on 9/26… granted, the two charts are tracking two different decades and had different correlations, but Merrill, who published the scary chart, had the duty Not to sensationalize by showing two decades worth of data.

There’s now a third Bus Week article dated 10/2 - Stocks Can Handle The Housing Chill - that rationalizes the new view that the scary Merrill chart might be just a facade:

“Bears worry that a housing downturn will hurt because it accounted for such a big share of economic growth over the past five years. The real estate boom created tons of jobs in construction, sales, lending, and related industries. Plus, it gave consumers billions in extra spending power through cash-out refinancing, home-equity loans, and the like.

But the employment hit in homebuilding is being offset by growth in nonresidential construction. As for the hit to consumption, there’s no sign of it yet, and there may never be much of one. Americans may just continue to spend even though their houses are worth less. A 2005 research paper by economists Karl E. Case of Wellesley College, John M. Quigley of the University of California at Berkeley, and Robert J. Shiller of Yale University concludes that while increases in housing wealth spur consumer spending, surprisingly, “declines in housing market wealth have no effect at all upon consumption.”

–pk

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