Zillow factual DATA and COMPS are good starting points (who wants a bad one?) PROVIDED they are ACCURATE, COMPLETE and FRESH. The only (big) problem is we can’t KNOW if the raw data and comps on Zillow have these good starting point necessities, since they come from unverified public databases, i.e. no humans (or androids) have checked the data or comps against the subject home. Since the raw data and comps are unreliable, all calculations based on them, to wit, zestimates and Zindex Housing Reports, are also unreliable. The zestimate is the fruit of the poisoned data tree.
We all know the Zillow mantra: “It’s just a starting point.” Yes, that’s nice, but I’d prefer a starting point closer to my destination. The fundamental problem with Zillow is the unreliable zestimate: If you don’t see a home, or have someone check the accuracy of the public data and comps, don’t give me a value that may be WAY OFF. In a flat or buyer’s market, a guess that’s even mildly off can spell disaster with a capital DOM. A crude analogy, but:
Let’s say I’m looking for the Atlantic Ocean (value of a home). If I ask a professional who has seen the Atlantic Ocean I’m told: “Start in New York City and walk east”. If I ask Zillow, who has never seen the Atlantic Ocean, Zillow may tell me: “Start in Los Angeles”. Yes, indeed, it is a starting point, but damn that’s a lot of walking.
Related Post:
I See, Said the Blind Man to the Deaf Lady.
Technorati Tags: Zillow, zestimate, home value, Sellsius, selltoon
Had a lengthy conversation with a seller last night. Now I have a new job duty, trying to explain to sellers why there are 4 disparate zestimates on 4 almost identical properties. I gave him a “teresament” and showed my comps and my math, and got my data from a source the is: “deemed reliable but not guaranteed”. I am a machine . . .
The Zillow machine creates work for the human machine. As Z admits, when you want to get serious, you need to move beyond the zestimate. SInce buying and selling real estate is serious business, agents MUST ALWAYS move beyond the zestimate. Run Teresa run.
My momma always told me…”Credibility is as Credibility does”.
Always seems to me that sellers want to sell their property on the high end of the Zillow price range. If there property is worth that price then I obviously have no problem with it. Most of the time it is not and I spend two hours trying to convince them of that. I usually have to end up letting the listing go. Zillow is especially bad with condos I find, but that is probably because they make up the majority of my market.
rocco,
Your experience confirms what we hear agents are facing with consumers who have used (and relied on) zillow. Instead of a starting point to help, it’s an extra step to deal with it.
Sellsius — please look into the public recording process at both the tax assessor and county recorder’s offices. You state that the primary input to Zillow’s algorithms is not manually verified — that’s ridiculous — this is the information that we as a society use to assess taxes and assign property ownership. When it’s wrong, isn’t THAT the story?
IMO, fair and accurate coverage of this issue should point out that:
1) Zillow allows owners to publish additions and corrections to the public record. As far as I know, we’re the only site to do so.
2) On Zillow, owners and others can recalculate (and owners can publish) a refined estimate based on those corrections. As far as I know, we’re the only site to do so.
Is it a slow week in RE news or what?
Yes, the errors & omissions in the public record are the story. Why would anyone guess a value when KEY data is missing?
Zillow would: check it out
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?city=Staten%20Island&state=NY&zprop=68319161
And this zestimate gets in the Zindex Report right?
Based on the admitted errors & omissions in the public record, Zillow has taken a step in the right direction—
1. let owners correct the public record. OK but…
To the extent owners have NOT made corrections, are we to assume there are NO errors or omissions? You can’t. Yet, Z still publishes zestimates & Zindex Reports on these potentially faulty data homes. You see our point?
As far as your point 2. is concerned, this is an attempt to incorporate unzillowables (the oohs and aahs) that are not in the public record. Once again, to the extent the owner has taken no action, are we to assume, the zestimate is spot on? You can’t. Yet Z still publishes….
Curiously, both 1 & 2 did not exist when we had our great debate in this post: http://tinyurl.com/2xu53w
Shortly thereafter Z made these improvements. Which lead to this post: http://tinyurl.com/3co42r
Now once Z gives listing owners the right to hide (opt-out) the zestimate beside the sale price, Z will have moved further ahead. We only hope you give us some credit for giving listing owners this necessary option. As you have said, the “serious” need to move past the zestimate. If I as listing owner DO move past the zestimate & find it totally inaccurate, why must Z force it to reside next to my serious price? It ain’t fair David. It is contrary to an owner’s right to portray their listing accurately without misleading guesstimates by third party guessers. Z is just inviting a lawsuit on this. Be bold and give owners the opt-out—your listings will skyrocket.
http://tinyurl.com/377elk
One last thing David. In the interest of transparency, does Z know the “average” error rate of its zestimates? If so, why doesn’t Z reveal it?
And Yes, it is a slow week. Only Redfin in the news.
But we missed you and thought the post would bring you around. You know that despite our apparent unappreciation of Z, we do admire that they are trying to get better. Once you junk that zestimate albatross you will be our darling. Tell your bean counters that homes are not stocks or cars. (Z did wisely ditch the Kelley Blue Book comparison)
David G, the info about my home that is on your site is just wrong. We bought the place for a buck and it had to be moved. The tax records are for a house that burned down 20 years ago and the data being pulled into zillow. Why would I change it on your site? Why would I take the time to verify or correct data on your site? My house is where I live, as far as I am concerned it only has value to me and it is priceless. Do I care what it’s value is in Zillow or anywhere else? The tax man from the county did stop by last summer. He may have figured it out, if so I imagine Zillow will be adjusted as soon as they up my taxes.
Hmmm…you guys know how to get me going in the morning, don’t you!
This zillow thing (still in Beta) is cute, disengenuious and misleading - ALL OF THE SAME CRITICISIMS THAT THE MOST CYNICAL CONSUMER HAS OF REAL ESTATE BROKERS/AGENTS. They, at zillow, hide behind the mantle of “educating the consumer”.
David G, all I see when I read your responses is “wha-wha-wha, wha-wha-wha-wha”. Ben Clark was at the recent NYSAR Winter meetings in Albany and stood before 500 of the leaders of the New York State Real Estate Industry, telling a story about how he used to sell some kind of heart monitoring device and trying to get everybody to cry because he saved someones life once. Then he left…embarassing.
Interlopers: the tide is starting to turn. Consumers and agents are seeing through your BS. It’s common knowledge that going to Lending Tree actually HURTS your chances of getting a mortgage because their practices damage your credit rating. Lead-generators, the agents you have been praying on now realize that paying the “Earl Schribe” $39.99 for leads doesn’t make them a real estate agent. It just wastes $39.99 a month and consumers are getting sick and tired of you over-commiting and under-delivering. You promise to get them in touch with “the best agent” and you have NO IDEA who you are passing these people off to(actually, anyone dunb enough to send in their credit cards for $39.99 a month). Nice.
Where’s the integrity in all of this?
What this is doing is driving the consumer back to the agent. To the agent they trust and have developed a relationship with.
I guess it’s all part of “progress”. Part of the ebb and flow of markets and culture. Hi-tech and hi-touch. Jeeze, I think I’m gonna cry. Where’s Ben? md
Teresa —
Many owners whose public records are incorrect do take your position — they couldn’t care. Others want to set the record straight and so we give Zillow users that option. I’m sure you know a few owners like that. For them, we introduced the features that let you publish accurate records and recalculate Zestimates.
It’s optional, but when you do come to sell your house, if you post it for sale on Zillow, you’ll probably want the facts to be correct.
It’s even more interesting how owners respond to news that their public records are incorrect (and the implication that there taxes are incorrectly assessed). Again, some folks seem pleased to be getting away with it and others are eager to set the record straight and pay their share.
Sellsius —
So, could you write about Zillow’s progress then next time?
Michael —
If you need to talk, email me [davidg at zillow dot com] and I’ll call you right back. It seems you have a few issues that we won’t be able to work through in the comments here.
David,
We have always written about Zilow’s progess. In fact, we gave you guys a pat on the back for this home page change, remember? http://tinyurl.com/2dc6rc
Does that mean that the zestimate opt-out for listers is coming?
RE: setting the record straight. Owners are under NO legal obligation to help the tax man. Read the opinions of Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas in full support of this philosophy (I have to find the specific tax case for the quotes).
Reality check: No one will correct the tax man in order that they be taxed higher—it is illogical and dumb. In fact, Rich Barton didn’t correct his until he was about to sell—shouldn’t he have set the record straight earlier as an example to others? C’mon David.
PS: the tax man is lurking on zillow according to Seattle pi.
Sellsius –
This is why I come in to work early.
We have no plans to allow owners to opt-out of Zestimates.
I do know that owners are under no legal obligation to “help the tax man”. I didn’t say that they were. Some owners actually do feel a (social?) obligation to pay correct their public record — and many others don’t.
David,
We bet Zillow does allow the zestimate opt-out for listers. What do you want to wager?
Evidently Mr. Barton did not feel a “social obligation” to help the tax man since he waited to put his home on the market before he upgraded his zestimate and the public record. I think he is in the majority.
As you know, the colonists started their little revolution with the King of England because of taxes. This may explain Americans’ behaviour. Besides, the fairness of property taxes is a huge can of worms which has nothing to do with helping Zillow correct its home data.
David - my house is 158 years old. it has been bought and sold many times without Zillow. Honestly I think I can manage. In a way I have opted out of Zillow. Not my probelm to clear up county records or Zillow data.
Teresa-
“opted out” - I like that.
So very civilized.
Me too. I’m opting out of zillow. md
I’m surprised listers haven’t petitioned Zillow to opt-out of the zestimate appearing next to their for sale prices. But would Zillow listen and give it to them? Evidently not.